Pela primeira vez em 11 anos, as vendas no comércio fecharam o ano negativas. A queda de 4,3 % foi anunciada nesta terça (16) pelo IBGE. O instituto registrou na Pesquisa Mensal de Comércio (PMC) que as vendas no varejo recuaram 2,7% em dezembro do ano passado em relação a novembro de 2015, na série livre de influências sazonais. Entre os estados, o ES foi o que apresentou maior queda na pesquisa ampliada, com uma redução de 16,02% nas vendas do varejo.
Nesse mesmo confronto, a variação da receita nominal foi de -1,9%. Para o volume de vendas, a queda registrada em dezembro ocorre após dois meses seguidos com variações positivas nessa comparação, período que acumulou crescimento de 1,9%.
Com o resultado de dezembro, o indicador de média móvel para o volume de vendas volta ao campo negativo (-0,3%), enquanto a taxa para receita nominal permanece positiva (0,6%). Na série sem ajuste sazonal, o total das vendas assinalou queda de 7,1% em relação a dezembro de 2014, nona variação negativa consecutiva nesse tipo de comparação.
O desempenho das vendas do comércio foi afetado pela inflação, pela piora no mercado de trabalho — com aumento do desemprego e do temor de perder o emprego — e pela redução na renda. Os juros altos também encareceram o crédito, prejudicando principalmente a venda de bens duráveis, como veículos e eletrodomésticos.
Apesar de muito fraco, o resultado do varejo foi um pouco melhor do que as expectativas. O Bradesco, por exemplo, previa que as vendas encolhessem 3% frente a novembro. Na comparação com dezembro de 2014, a projeção do banco era de queda de 7,5%.
Com isso, os resultados para o volume de vendas foram negativos tanto no quarto trimestre de 2015 (-6,9%), como para o fechamento do ano (-4,3%). Em ambos confrontos as variações são as mais acentuadas da série histórica, iniciada em 2001. A taxa anualizada de -4,3%, pela ótica do indicador acumulado nos últimos 12 meses, em movimento descendente iniciado em julho de 2014 (4,3%), assinala sua maior perda desde novembro de 2003 (-4,6%). A receita nominal, para essas mesmas comparações, mantém-se no campo positivo, com variações de: 2,8% frente a dezembro de 2014 e 3,2% para o acumulado no ano e nos últimos 12 meses.
O comércio varejista ampliado, que inclui o varejo e as atividades de veículos, motos, partes e peças e de material de construção, as variações sobre o mês imediatamente anterior foram negativas, com taxas de -0,9% para volume de vendas e de -0,2% para a receita nominal. No confronto com 2014, o volume de vendas apresentou resultados negativos, com quedas de 11,0% em relação a dezembro e de 8,6% no acumulado do ano. A receita nominal também apresentou decréscimo sobre dezembro de 2014 (-2,7%) e nos últimos 12 meses (-1,9%).
Na série ajustada sazonalmente, a passagem de novembro para dezembro de 2015 registrou recuo de 2,7% no volume de vendas, com predomínio de resultados negativos alcançando seis das oito atividades que compõem o varejo. Os principais destaques foram observados em móveis e eletrodomésticos (-8,7%), setor que vinha apresentando resultados positivos nos três meses anteriores, período que acumulou 7,8% de crescimento; outros artigos de uso pessoal e doméstico (-3,6%), após avanço de 4,1% no mês anterior; hipermercados, supermercados, produtos alimentícios, bebidas e fumo (-1,0%), atividade de maior peso no varejo, que recua pelo segundo mês nessa comparação; tecidos, vestuário e calçados, que apontou queda de 2,1%, após dois meses de variações positivas, período que acumulou exatos 2,1%; e livros, jornais, revistas e papelarias (-1,4%), que registrou a segunda taxa negativa seguida. Houve também expressiva redução de 9,1% em equipamentos de escritório, informática e comunicação, compensando, em dezembro, o ganho de 18,8% registrado no mês anterior. As taxas positivas foram registradas no setor que comercializa uma parcela de bens essenciais, como é o caso de artigos farmacêuticos, médicos, ortopédicos, de perfumaria e cosméticos (0,4%) e em combustíveis e lubrificantes (0,5%), setor que avançou após oito taxas negativas seguidas, período que acumulou uma perda de 7,7%. Considerando o varejo Ampliado, a variação foi de -0,9%, com veículos e motos, partes e peças (0,4%) e material de construção (1,1%), permanecendo no campo positivo.
Na comparação com igual mês do ano anterior, o setor varejista mostrou queda de 7,1% em dezembro de 2015, com perfil disseminado de resultados negativos entre as atividades que compõem o comércio varejista. Os principais impactos negativos na formação da taxa geral vieram dos recuos de 17,7% no volume de vendas no setor de móveis e eletrodomésticos e de 3,7% no segmento de hipermercados, supermercados, produtos alimentícios, bebidas e fumo, seguidos por tecidos, vestuário e calçados (-10,3%), outros artigos de uso pessoal e doméstico (-7,9%) e combustíveis e lubrificantes (-10,0%). Esses cinco setores juntos respondem por mais de 95% do resultado global para o varejo. As demais atividades registraram taxas negativas a dois dígitos, mas praticamente não tiveram influência significativa no resultado interanual do volume de vendas em dezembro: equipamentos e material para escritório, informática e comunicação (-15,4%) e livros, jornais, revistas e papelaria (-14,9%). Por outro lado, artigos farmacêuticos, médicos, ortopédicos, de perfumaria e cosméticos, com avanço de 3,1% frente a dezembro de 2014, foi o único a exercer pressão positiva.
Vendas no varejo caem 4,3% em 2015
No índice acumulado para o período janeiro-dezembro de 2015, frente a igual período do ano anterior, o volume de vendas do comércio varejista registrou recuo de 4,3%, o mais elevado da série histórica iniciada em 2001. Esse comportamento foi acompanhado por um perfil disseminado de taxas negativas entre as oito atividades que compõem o varejo, das quais sete fecharam o ano com queda no volume de vendas. Os destaques, em termos de contribuição para o resultado global, foram: móveis e eletrodomésticos (-14,0%); hipermercados, supermercados, produtos alimentícios, bebidas e fumo (-2,5%); tecidos, vestuário e calçados (-8,7%) e combustíveis e lubrificantes (-6,2%). As demais atividades com desempenho negativo foram: livros, jornais, revistas e papelaria (-10,9%); equipamentos e material de escritório, informática e comunicação (-1,7%) e outros artigos de uso pessoal e doméstico (-1,3%). Na comparação com o ano de 2014, o único setor que apresentou aumento no volume de vendas foi artigos farmacêuticos, médicos, ortopédicos, de perfumaria e cosméticos, com 3,0% de avanço.
Com queda de 14,0% em comparação a janeiro-dezembro de 2014, o setor de móveis e eletrodomésticos registrou a redução mais acentuada da série histórica iniciada em 2001, contribuindo com o maior impacto negativo na taxa anual do comércio varejista. Com uma dinâmica de vendas associada à disponibilidade de crédito e à evolução da massa real de rendimentos, o resultado do setor, abaixo da média geral, foi influenciado principalmente pela elevação da taxa de juros nas operações de crédito às pessoas físicas e pela queda da renda real , entre dezembro de 2014 e dezembro de 2015. A redução das vendas desse segmento reflete também a retirada dos incentivos via redução de impostos, em especial na linha branca, fato que vinha ocorrendo nos últimos anos.
O setor de hipermercados, supermercados, produtos alimentícios, bebidas e fumo, com queda de 2,5% no fechamento de 2015, teve o recuo mais acentuado desde 2003 (-4,9%) e exerceu a segunda maior influência negativa na redução do total do varejo. A redução da renda real ao longo de 2015 e o aumento de preços dos alimentos em domicílio, no mesmo período, foram os principais responsáveis pelo desempenho negativo do setor.
O segmento de tecidos, vestuário e calçados, com recuo de 8,7% no volume de vendas para o acumulado janeiro-dezembro de 2015, foi responsável pela terceira contribuição negativa no fechamento de 2015. Essa foi a maior queda na sua série histórica. Mesmo com os preços de vestuário se posicionando abaixo do índice geral de inflação, a atividade apresenta desempenho acumulado inferior à média geral do comércio varejista, refletindo o quadro de perda de poder de compra das famílias.
Combustíveis e lubrificantes, com queda de -6,2% no volume de vendas em relação a janeiro-dezembro de 2014, representou a quarta maior contribuição negativa no resultado total do varejo. Este resultado, abaixo da média geral, foi influenciado pela alta de preços dos combustíveis, cuja variação superou a inflação, além do impacto devido à redução do ritmo da atividade econômica.
A atividade de livros, jornais, revistas e papelaria apresentou queda de 10,9% no volume de vendas sobre janeiro-dezembro de 2014, a mais acentuada da sua série histórica. Além da redução da renda real, a trajetória declinante desta atividade vem sendo influenciada, em especial no que tange a jornais e revistas, por certa substituição dos produtos impressos pelos de meio eletrônico.
Equipamentos e material de escritório, informática e comunicação, com redução no volume de vendas de 1,7% no acumulado do ano de 2015, reflete não só o quadro de redução de renda real e elevação dos juros, como também, especialmente para informática, um processo de migração dos computadores de mesa para equipamentos de maior portabilidade e custos mais baixos, tais como tablets e smartphones.
Com queda de 1,3% no acumulado janeiro-dezembro de 2015, o segmento de outros artigos de uso pessoal e doméstico, que engloba lojas de departamentos, ótica, joalheria, artigos esportivos, brinquedos, etc., registrou a primeira variação negativa para o volume de vendas nesse tipo de comparação.
Somente artigos farmacêuticos, médicos, ortopédicos, de perfumaria e cosméticos fechou 2015 com crescimento no volume de vendas (3,0%). Embora esse desempenho possa ser atribuído ao caráter essencial do uso de seus produtos, o crescimento no ano foi o mais baixo da série histórica do setor.
O comércio varejista ampliado registrou em 2015 uma variação acumulada de -8,6% sobre o ano anterior, a queda mais acentuada da série histórica. Esse resultado reflete o comportamento das vendas de veículos, motos, partes e peças (17,8%) e de material de construção (8,4%), os recuos mais elevados das suas séries históricas. Os fatores que justificam este desempenho são a diminuição do ritmo de crédito, a gradual retirada dos incentivos via redução do IPI, a elevação da taxa de juros e a restrição orçamentária das famílias.
Resultados do varejo foram negativos em todas as 27 unidades da federação. O ES teve a maior queda
Na passagem de novembro para dezembro de 2015, série com ajuste sazonal, as vendas no varejo foram negativas para as 27 unidades da federação, com as maiores taxas observadas no Pará (-11,0%), Bahia (-7,2%) e Sergipe (-6,4%).
Frente a dezembro de 2014, série sem ajuste sazonal, o comércio varejista também registrou queda no volume de vendas para os 27 estados, com destaque em termos de magnitude para o Amapá (-24,9%). Quanto à participação na composição da taxa negativa do varejo, destacaram-se São Paulo (-5,8%) e Rio de Janeiro (-5,5%).
Também no varejo ampliado, todas as 27 unidades da federação apresentaram variações negativas na comparação com dezembro do ano passado. Em termos de volume de vendas, destacaram-se Sergipe (-22,8%), Amapá (-22,2%) e Acre (-20,5%). Os estados com maior impacto negativo foram Rio de Janeiro (-13,7%), São Paulo (-4,7%) e Rio Grande do Sul (-17,2%).
Regionalmente, o desempenho acumulado de janeiro-dezembro de 2015 mostrou redução no volume das vendas do comércio varejista em 26 das 27 unidades da federação, com destaque par0a Amapá (-12,4%), Paraíba (-10,3%) e Goiás (-10,2%). A exceção ficou por conta de Roraima, com avanço de 6,5%.
Considerando o comércio varejista ampliado, todas as 27 Unidades da Federação apontaram queda, com destaque para Espírito Santo (-16,2%); Goiás (-15,0%); Tocantins (-14,9%) e Paraíba (-14,6%).
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Carnegie Mellon Software Engineering Institute.
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