O Banco Central calcula que o Brasil deve ficar 3,5% mais pobre em 2016 e conviver com uma inflação de 6,6% . A informação está no relatório trimestral de inflação, divulgado nesta quinta-feira (31). Neste cenário, o BC indicou que não deve haver uma redução dos juros, que hoje estão em 14,25% ao ano. A projeção é pior do que a divulgada no relatório anterior, em dezembro. Na época, o BC calculava um encolhimento de 1,9% da economia e inflação de 6,2%.
Esta é a primeira vez que o Banco Central reconhece que a inflação de 2016 vai estourar o teto da meta de 4,5% ao ano, mas com tolerância de dois pontos percentuais para cima ou para baixo (na prática, variando entre 2,5% e 6,5%).
A piora para a projeção do PIB foi muito expressiva, de 1,6 ponto percentual. Ou seja, em vez da queda de 1,9% na atividade econômica prevista no relatório anterior, de dezembro, o Copom agora prevê uma contração de 3,5%. Em 2015, a economia registrou um tombo de 3,8%.
Para 2017, a projeção do BC é de que a inflação chegue a 4,9%, também pior do que a expectativa anterior, de 4,8%. O BC mostrou ainda que vê a inflação a 4,5% no primeiro trimestre de 2018.
Ainda segundo estimativa do BC, o dólar deve fechar este ano em R$ 3,70, projeção menor que de dezembro, de R$ 3,90.
Entre os problemas destacados pelo BC no âmbito doméstico, o relatório ressalta a intensificação das “incertezas oriundas do efeito de eventos não econômicos”. “Entretanto, para o Comitê, depois de um período necessário de ajustes, que se tem mostrado mais intenso e mais longo que o antecipado, à medida que a confiança de firmas e famílias se fortaleça, o ritmo de atividade tende a se intensificar”, diz o documento.
O Copom destaca também que a alta inflação reduz o poder de compra, afetando negativamente a confiança e o consumo das famílias. “Por conseguinte, taxas de inflação elevadas reduzem o potencial de crescimento da economia, bem como o de geração de empregos e de renda.”
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