O Banco Central (BC) espera que a inflação, medida pelo Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA), fique em 4% este ano. A informação foi divulgada nesta quinta (30), em Brasília, pelo BC. A estimativa é feita com base em projeções do mercado financeiro para as taxas de juros e de câmbio. Se a projeção se confirmar, ficará abaixo do centro da meta de 4,5%, com limite inferior de 3% e superior de 6%. Para 2018, a projeção é 4,5% no centro da meta. A estimativa para 12 meses encerrados em março de 2019 é 4,6%. Essas estimativas integram o cenário central, anteriormente chamado pelo BC de “cenário de mercado”.
Outro cenário
No segundo cenário, em nova metodologia, o BC utiliza as projeções de mercado para a taxa de juros e prevê um câmbio constante em R$ 3,10 para fazer a estimativa. Este ano, a inflação deve fechar em 3,9%, em 2018 em 4,3% e, em 12 meses encerrados em março de 2019, em 4,4%.
O BC também divulga outros dois cenários, mas os considera com “menos conteúdo informativo no contexto atual”, em que há expectativa de continuidade da trajetória de redução da taxa básica de juros, a Selic. Nesses dois cenários, se supõe que taxa Selic ficará constante no atual patamar (12,25% ao ano) ao longo do período da projeção.
Em um desses cenários, anteriormente chamado de “cenário de referência”, a taxa de câmbio também é constante. A estimativa para a inflação é 3,9% em 2017 e 4% em 2018. No último cenário, o BC considera a projeção do mercado financeiro para a taxa de câmbio, com inflação em 3,9%, neste ano, e 4,2% em 2017.
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