IBGE: número de idosos com 80 anos ou mais deve crescer 27 vezes de 1980 a 2060

Repórter Capixaba Brasil 226

idosos2-repcapO número de idosos com 80 anos ou mais pode passar de 19 milhões em 2060, um crescimento de mais de 27 vezes em relação a 1980, quando o Brasil tinha menos de 1 milhão de pessoas nessa faixa etária (684.789 pessoas). Na projeção para 2016, o país contabiliza 3.458.279 idosos com mais de 80, segundo o Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE).

As estimativas populacionais de 1980 a 1999 foram acrescentadas hoje (26) pelo IBGE aos dados de 2000 a 2060 – divulgados em 2013. As informações fazem com que a série histórica tenha um intervalo de 80 anos.

Se confirmada a projeção, o Brasil chegaria a 2060 com 19.111.509 de pessoas com 80 anos ou mais. Esse contingente, se comparado aos dados atuais, perderia apenas para a população total de São Paulo e Minas Gerais.

A alta é resultado da melhoria da esperança de vida ao nascer do brasileiro, que era de 62,58 anos em 1980 e pode atingir 81,2 anos segundo a projeção de 2060.

Crianças

Na outra ponta da pirâmide etária, o grupo de crianças de até 4 anos em 2060 deve representar praticamente a metade do estimado na década de 80 (16.942.583).

A previsão é que esse número mantenha a queda iniciada no fim daquela década e chegue a 8.935.080 em 2060.

Atualmente, segundo projeções do órgão, o país tem 14.545.488 crianças de 0 a 4 anos (2016).

A diferença no número de crianças é reflexo de outro dado demográfico que vem caindo: o número de filhos por mulher. Em 1980, a média era de 4,12 filhos por mulher, taxa que já tinha diminuído para 2,39 em 2000 e deve chegar a 1,50 em 2060.

Fonte: Agência Brasil

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