Índice do Banco Central sinaliza recessão grave: pior cenário em 25 anos

O Banco Central divulgou nesta quina (18) o IBC-Br (Índice de Atividade Econômica do Banco Central). O índice é considerado uma “prévia” informal do PIB (Produto Interno Bruto) e fechou 2015 com queda de 4,08%. O IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística) deve divulgar os dados oficiais do PIB do ano passado no dia 3 de março. O PIB é a soma de tudo o que é produzido no país. Se o resultado do IBGE for semelhante ao indicado pelo BC, será a pior recessão no Brasil em 25 anos, desde 1990, quando a retração foi de 4,35%.
O resultado do IBC-Br mostra que o cenário de recessão piora cada vez mais, em meio às incertezas políticas e econômicas no país. Quase todos os setores da economia vêm registrando sucessivos resultados negativos. Além disso, o desemprego está alto, os índices de confiança vêm caindo, e a inflação e os juros estão em patamares elevados.
Também nesta quinta, a OCDE (Organização para a Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico) divulgou previsão de queda de 4% da economia brasileira neste ano e de estagnação em 2017.
O FMI (Fundo Monetário Internacional) piorou, em janeiro, as expectativas para o PIB em 2016, de -1% para -3,5%. Para 2017, o FMI também mudou a projeção: de crescimento de 2,3% para estagnação. Em 2015, segundo previsão do órgão, a economia deve ter encolhido 3,8%.

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