Ipea prevê retomada mais lenta da economia em 2017

Repórter Capixaba Brasil 764

O Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea) prevê a retomada da economia este ano de forma mais gradual do que o projetado anteriormente, segundo o estudo Visão Geral da Carta de Conjuntura – número 35, divulgada nesta quinta (29) pela instituição, no Rio de Janeiro.

“Fizemos antes um cenário em que era condicional a aprovação mais rápida e segura das reformas constitucionais. Com o aumento da incerteza acerca dessa questão, e também com base nos indicadores já disponíveis, reestimamos tudo. Continuamos prevendo crescimento, porém em um ritmo mais lento do que anteriormente previsto”, disse o diretor de Estudos e Políticas Macroeconômicas do Ipea (Dimac).

A previsão, feita em março passado, indicava crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB – soma de todos os bens e serviços fabricados no país) de 0,7%, em 2017. Agora, a estimativa é de aumento de 0,3%. A projeção é que o segundo trimestre do ano tenha crescimento negativo em torno de 0,5%, o que segundo ele, acaba atrapalhando a taxa anual, que fecharia em 0,3%.

Para 2018, o Ipea prevê aumento de 2,3% PIB, um crescimento bem maior, segundo Souza Júnior, especialmente quando se lembra que o país esteve em recessão “É um número positivo, porém poderiamos esperar uma taxa mais elevada, caso resolvida a questão fiscal de longo prazo”.

Para o pesquisador do Ipea, é fundamental para o país resolver a situação.de descontrole entre receitas e despesas. “Tem de ser resolvido, para que o país consiga ter um horizonte mais seguro para os investidores e que isso permita uma retomada mais vigorosa.”

Inflação

Para o economista, as perspectivas são otimistas em relação à inflação, porque houve queda generalizada de preços, com alimentos puxando a taxa para baixo. Ele disse que, mesmo excluindo os preços dos alimentos, a tendência de queda da inflação continua. “Embora tenhamos previsto um relativo aumento no ano que vem em relação a este, ainda assim se manteria uma taxa sob controle, sem nenhum problema para o cumprimento de metas, por enquanto”.

A inflação projetada para 2017 alcança 3,5%; para 2018, a previsão é 4,3%, porém dentro da meta de 4,5% estabelecida pelo Banco Central. O economista destacou que os números estão abaixo da meta e em linha com a meta de 4,25%, divulgada hoje (29) para 2019. “É um cenário bem positivo em relação à inflação.”

A previsão é que a taxa de juros básica Selic caia para 8,5% e se mantenha nesse patamar no próximo ano. Na reunião de maio do Comitê de Política Monetária do Banco Central (Copom), havia reduzido a a taxa Selic para 10,25% ao ano.

A redução para 8,5% ao ano é motivada pela inflação sob controle e pela grande capacidade ociosa que há na economia, tanto em termos de mão de obra como de capacidade instalada, que “permitem retomada sem maiores pressões inflacionárias”, disse o diretor da Dimac.

Para Souza Júnior, vai demorar um pouco mais para que o mercado de trabalho mostre reação. “Vamos ter taxas de desemprego ainda elevadas. O mercado de trabalho vai melhorar gradualmente.”.

Fonte: Agência Brasil

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