Mercado financeiro eleva para 3,5% projeção de inflação este ano

Repórter Capixaba Brasil 395

O mercado financeiro aumentou pela quarta semana seguida a projeção para a inflação este ano, após o aumento da tributação sobre combustíveis. Desta vez, a projeção para o Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA) subiu de 3,45% para 3,5%. A estimativa consta do boletim Focus, uma publicação divulgada no site do Banco Central (BC) todas as semanas, com projeções para os principais indicadores econômicos.

Para 2018, a projeção para o IPCA é mantida de 4,2%, há quatro semanas consecutivas. As estimativas para os dois anos permanecem abaixo do centro da meta de 4,5%, que deve ser perseguida pelo BC. Essa meta tem ainda um intervalo de tolerância entre 3% e 6%.

Selic

Para alcançar a meta, o BC usa como principal instrumento a taxa básica de juros, a Selic, atualmente em 9,25% ao ano. Quando o Copom aumenta a Selic, a meta é conter a demanda aquecida, e isso gera reflexos nos preços porque os juros mais altos encarecem o crédito e estimulam a poupança.

Já quando o Copom diminui os juros básicos, a tendência é que o crédito fique mais barato com incentivo à produção e ao consumo, reduzindo o controle sobre a inflação.

A expectativa do mercado financeiro para a Selic ao final de 2017 e de 2018 segue em 7,50% ao ano. A estimativa do mercado financeiro para a expansão do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB, a soma de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país), foi mantida em 0,34%, este ano, e em 2%, em 2018.

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