Recuperação de crédito cai 1,7% no acumulado 12 meses

Menos brasileiros estão conseguindo retirar seus nomes da lista de devedores. É o que mostra o indicador de recuperação de crédito – obtido a partir da quantidade de exclusões dos registros de inadimplentes da base da Boa Vista SCPC. O indicador apontou queda de 1,7% na variação acumulada em 12 meses (agosto de 2016 até julho de 2017). A variação mensal com dados dessazonalizados apresentou queda de 6,4% contra o mês de junho. No acumulado no ano (janeiro até julho de 2017, em comparação ao mesmo período do ano passado) houve queda de 1,8% na recuperação de crédito. Na análise interanual (mesmo mês de 2016) houve queda de 6,0%.

Em termos regionais, na comparação em 12 meses observou-se alta somente na região Sul (2,5%). Para as demais regiões, ficou a seguinte configuração: Norte (-9,5%), Centro-Oeste (-5,6%), Sudeste (-0,2%) e Nordeste (-4,4%).

Apesar das divergências dos indicadores regionais, a média brasileira de recuperação de crédito começa a traçar uma tendência de queda na recuperação de crédito. Entretanto, o quadro de inadimplência na economia mantém-se com poucas alterações, uma vez que o crescimento do fluxo de registros de consumidores inadimplentes nos últimos meses também permanece em níveis próximos da estabilidade.

Metodologia

O indicador de recuperação de crédito é elaborado a partir da quantidade de exclusões dos registros de dívidas vencidas e não pagas informados anteriormente à Boa Vista pelas empresas credoras. As séries têm como ano base a média de 2011 = 100 e passam por ajuste sazonal para avaliação da variação mensal. Em janeiro de 2014 houve atualização dos fatores sazonais e reelaboração das séries dessazonalizadas, utilizando o filtro sazonal X-12 ARIMA, disponibilizado pelo US Census Bureau.

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