O setor de serviços fechou 2016 com queda acumulada de 5% em relação a 2015 – a maior da série histórica, iniciada em 2012. Esta é a segunda queda consecutiva, tendo em vista que em 2015 o setor já havia fechado com retração de 3,6%.
Os dados fazem parte da Pesquisa Mensal de Serviços e foram divulgados nesta quarta (15) pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Eles mostram que, em dezembro do ano passado, no entanto, o setor fechou com crescimento de 0,6% em relação a novembro (série livre de influências sazonais).
O crescimento de dezembro de 2016 foi o segundo consecutivo, tendo em vista que em novembro, ainda na série dessazonalizada, o setor havia registrado pequeno crescimento: 0,2%.
Em relação a dezembro de 2015, o setor registrou queda de 5,7%, a maior para o mês de dezembro nessa comparação desde o início da série em 2012.
Os dados do IBGE indicam que a receita nominal registrou variação de 0,5% em dezembro, frente a novembro, na série com ajuste sazonal. Na comparação com o mesmo mês do ano anterior, houve queda de 1,5%. No resultado acumulado de 2016, o setor de serviços fechou negativo em 0,1%.
Na avaliação do Técnico da Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio do IBGE, Roberto Saldanha, a queda acumulada no setor nada mais é do que o reflexo da retração da atividade econômica como um todo, e da industrial em particular.
Para ele, a recuperação do setor só acontecerá com uma recuperação segura e contínua da economia. Saldanha avalia que a retração do ano passado reflete o desaquecimento da atividade econômica, de um modo geral e, em particular, a restrição orçamentária dos governos.
“Com os governos investindo menos, há menor contratação dos serviços, menos investimentos por parte dos governos e por extensão também das empresas. E o setor de serviços é o reflexo do desaquecimento das atividades econômicas de uma maneira geral e da redução dos gastos dos governos em todos os níveis – federal, estadual e municipal”.
No entendimento do técnico do IBGE, quando a economia entra em um processo de recessão é exatamente o setor de serviços o último a sentir. “Ele é o último a sentir a retração econômica, mas também é o último a se recuperar, porque depende essencialmente dos outros setores da economia”, disse Saldanha.
Influências
A queda no setor de serviços em 2016 teve forte influência da área de transportes, serviços auxiliares e correio, que chegou a retrair no ano passado (-7,6%), com destaque para o transporte terrestre, com -10,4%.
A retração do transporte está ligada ao comportamento negativo da economia brasileira, principalmente no que diz respeito à indústria, que mais demanda o serviço, tanto para o consumo de matérias-primas quanto para a distribuição da produção, afirmam os economistas do IBGE.
“Nesse aspecto, é importante ressaltar a forte dependência do transporte de cargas (rodoviário, ferroviário e dutoviário) em relação ao setor industrial”. Por isso, o IBGE avalia que “a recuperação dessa atividade vai depender da recuperação do setor industrial”.
Regiões
A queda de 5,7% no setor de serviços em dezembro de 2016, frente a dezembro de 2015, reflete resultados negativos em todas as unidades da Federação, sendo que as maiores variações foram registradas em Mato Grosso (-33,1%), Rondônia (-19,6%) e Tocantins (-18,5%).
Também fecharam com resultados negativos o Distrito Federal (-13,6%), Ceará (-10,9%), Rio de Janeiro (-7,3%), Espírito Santo (-5,8%), Minas Gerais (-5,2%), a Bahia (-2,4%), o Paraná (-2%) e Santa Catarina (-1,5%).
Ainda na comparação com dezembro de 2015, série sem ajuste sazonal, fecharam com variações positivas Goiás, onde o crescimento chegou a 13,9%; Pernambuco (8,2%); São Paulo (7,3%); e o Rio Grande do Sul (1,4%).
Fonte: Agência Brasil
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