O volume de vendas do comércio varejista capixaba apresentou nova queda em maio comparado com abril, após leve melhora na comparação entre abril e março (0,5%), registrando variação negativa de 2,3%. Nessa comparação, o Brasil também apresentou queda de 1,0%. As séries que comparam o mês corrente com o mês anterior possuem ajuste sazonal.
A tendência de queda na comparação mensal se confirma com os recuos nas variações no volume de vendas nas comparações com o mesmo mês do ano passado (interanual) e na variação acumulada. Na comparação interanual (maio de 2015) a queda para o Espírito Santo foi de 15,2%. Para o Brasil, a queda foi de 9,0%. Nos primeiros cinco meses do ano, o comércio capixaba acumula uma retração de 10,7% em comparação com o mesmo período do ano passado. Para o Brasil, o acumulado das vendas registrou queda de 7,3%.
O desempenho negativo na comparação interanual foi influenciado, principalmente, pelas retrações nas atividades de Móveis (-41,9%) e Equipamentos e Materiais para Escritório, Informática e Comunicação (-38,6%). A dinâmica de vendas desses segmentos está diretamente associada à disponibilização de crédito, atualmente escasso. Todos os segmentos do comércio varejista apresentaram retração em relação ao mesmo mês do ano passado. A exceção foi o segmento de Artigos farmacêuticos, médicos, ortopédicos, de perfumaria e cosméticos que apresentou um pequeno crescimento de 0,5%.
No comércio varejista ampliado, que incorpora os setores de veículos, motocicletas, partes e peças, e materiais de construção, a retração das vendas no comércio capixaba foi de 20,3% na comparação com o mesmo mês do ano anterior. Entre os estados, a queda de 20,3% foi a maior do Brasil. A queda continua sendo mais influenciada pela retração nas vendas de veículos, motocicletas, partes e peças que caiu -31,9%, enquanto para os materiais de construção a retração foi de -3,4%.
Como se pode notar, a retomada nas vendas ainda é incerta, pois há uma volatilidade dos indicadores alternando meses com pequenos crescimentos e outros com quedas. Reflexo disso é mostrado quando se olha para as variações acumuladas do volume de vendas, que estão bem negativas. A pesquisa de Intenção de Consumo das Famílias realizada no município de Vitória, divulgada pela Fecomércio-ES, mostrou que em maio de 2016, 72,4% das famílias declararam estar comprando menos que no ano passado. Apesar de a pesquisa ser apenas em um município do estado, pode-se ter uma noção do que acontece para o estado, e a intenção de consumo baixa é confirmada pela pesquisa do IBGE.
Pesquisa Mensal do Comércio – PMC – IBGE
Variação % volume de vendas mês/mês anterior, com ajuste sazonal
| Atividades | % Abr16 X Mar16 | % Mai16 X Abr16 |
| Brasil | +0,5 | -1,0 |
| Espírito Santo | +0,5 | -2,3 |
Fonte: PMC/IBGE. Elaboração: Fecomércio ES.
Demais variações no volume de vendas %, sem ajuste sazonal
| Atividades | Variação mensal % Abr16 X Abr15 | Variação acumulada no ano % (base: igual período do ano anterior) | Variação % acumulada de 12 meses |
| Comércio – Brasil | -9,0 | -7,3 | -6,5 |
| Comércio – Espírito Santo | -15,2 | -10,7 | -10,0 |
| Combustíveis e lubrificantes | -15,5 | -14,5 | -13,8 |
| Hipermercados, supermercados, produtos alimentícios, bebidas e fumo | -8,2 | -4,4 | -4,0 |
| Hipermercados e supermercados | -8,1 | -4,3 | -3,9 |
| Tecidos, vestuário e calçados | -25,8 | -10,5 | -11,6 |
| Móveis e eletrodomésticos | -25,0 | -21,1 | -18,4 |
| Móveis | -41,9 | -38,4 | -30,1 |
| Eletrodomésticos | -13,6 | -8,2 | -9,7 |
| Artigos farmacêuticos, médicos, ortopédicos, de perfumaria e cosméticos | 0,5 | 2,7 | 1,9 |
| Livros, jornais, revistas e papelaria | -10,5 | -9,0 | -10,8 |
| Equipamentos e materiais para escritório, informática e comunicação | -38,6 | 0,7 | -2,7 |
| Outros artigos de uso pessoal e doméstico | -33,7 | -32,4 | -27,3 |
| Comércio Ampliado – Brasil | -10,2 | -9,5 | -9,7 |
| Comércio Ampliado – Espírito Santo | -20,3 | -18,9 | -18,8 |
| Veículos, motocicletas, partes e peças | -31,9 | -33,0 | -32,2 |
| Material de construção | -3,4 | -6,8 | -8,7 |
Fonte: PMC/IBGE. Elaboração: Fecomércio ES.
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